By James Picerno | The Milwaukee Company
Th 5.4% annual return aligns exactly with the 10-year expectation from recent run (March 31, 2025) of Vanguard's Capital Markets Model (VCMM).
https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives#projected-returns
It would be helpful to see the historical correlations of the models to historical returns. As in how closely correlated are CAPE projected returns to actual returns.
There's a moderate degree of positive correlation. For example, see this article I wrote in Feb with a couple of charts: https://www.tmcresearch.com/p/can-lofty-us-stock-market-valuations
Th 5.4% annual return aligns exactly with the 10-year expectation from recent run (March 31, 2025) of Vanguard's Capital Markets Model (VCMM).
https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives#projected-returns
It would be helpful to see the historical correlations of the models to historical returns. As in how closely correlated are CAPE projected returns to actual returns.
There's a moderate degree of positive correlation. For example, see this article I wrote in Feb with a couple of charts: https://www.tmcresearch.com/p/can-lofty-us-stock-market-valuations